Cultural differences, intergenerational contacts, and the spread of Covid-19: Evidence from Swiss language regions.

The Covid-19 pandemic displayed large variations between and within countries in the speed of contagion and in observed fatality rates. This work sheds light on the role of social ties in old age, exploiting the high cultural variation between German-speaking and Latin- (French- and Italian-) speaking regions in Switzerland. We show that older adults in Latin-speaking regions exhibit a larger social network and more intergenerational contacts than their German-speaking counterparts. These differences are consistent with the heterogeneous incidence of the disease across language regions. Even controlling for several determinants of the contagion, we find large differences in the incidence of Covid-19 among older adults, in both the first and second waves of the pandemic. These findings also hold when exploiting language variations within the three Swiss bilingual cantons. We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by differences in canton-specific policies or in citizens' compliance with containment measures.

Reconstructing the Effectiveness of Policy Measures to Avoid Next-Wave COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Using a Dynamic Simulation Model: Implications for Health Technology Assessment.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to dynamically model next-wave scenarios to observe the impact of different lockdown measures on the infection rates (IR) and mortality for two different prototype countries, mimicking the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. METHODS: A dynamic simulation SIRD model was designed to assess the effectiveness of policy measures on four next-wave scenarios, each preceded by two different lockdowns. The four scenarios were (1) no-measures, (2) uniform measures, (3) differential measures based on isolating > 60 years of age group, and (4) differential measures with additional contact reduction measures for the 20-60 years of age group. The dynamic simulation model was prepared for two prototype European countries, Northwestern (NW) and Southern (S) country. Both prototype countries were characterized based on age composition and contact matrix. RESULTS: The results show that the outcomes of the next-wave scenarios depend on number of infections of previous lockdowns. All scenarios reduce the incremental deaths compared with a no-measures scenario. Differential measures show lower number of deaths despite an increase of infections. Additionally, prototype S shows overall more deaths compared with prototype NW due to a higher share of older citizens. CONCLUSION: This study shows that differential measures are a worthwhile option for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. This may also be the case in situations where relevant parts of the population have taken up vaccination. Additionally, the effectiveness of interventions strongly depends on the number of previously infected individuals. The results of this study may be useful when planning and forecasting the impact of non-pharmacological interventions and vaccination campaigns.

Physically distant but socially close? Changes in non-physical intergenerational contacts at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic among older people in France, Italy and Spain.

Physical distancing is intended to mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, the impact of a decrease in face-to-face contacts on non-physical social contacts of older people remains unclear. In particular, we focus on intergenerational contacts that are especially relevant for older people's mental health. Our analyses rely on an online quota sampling survey conducted in France, Italy and Spain during April 14-24, 2020. We considered the subsample of individuals aged 50 + (N = 4207). We calculated post-stratification weights based on official statistics and used logistic regressions to analyze how changes in intergenerational contacts differed by socioeconomic factors and to what extent non-physical contacts (via phone, social media, etc.) have compensated the reduction in face-to-face contacts. Finally, the change in digital devices' use has been explored as a consequence of both decreased physical intergenerational contacts (PIC) and increased non-physical intergenerational contacts (NPIC). We found that about 50% of older people have increased their NPIC during the first lockdown. Younger individuals, those with medium level of education, and those economically better off displayed higher probabilities of increased NPIC as compared to their counterparts. NPIC increased especially for individuals whose face-to-face contacts decreased, particularly so if this happened with respect to contacts with children. A large share of older people has increased their use of video calls and instant messages, while only some increased the use of social media. These findings are relevant to understand how intergenerational contacts changed during the pandemic and may be central to better plan future outbreak responses. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-021-00621-x.

No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 originated in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus and deaths from the associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. Our aim is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and spread and lethality of COVID-19 in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support these links. In fact, despite a higher prevalence of intergenerational coresidence and contacts that is broadly positively associated with COVID-19 case fatality rates at the country level, the opposite is generally true at the subnational level. While this inconsistent evidence demonstrates neither the existence nor the absence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the severity of COVID-19, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data, which suffer from many shortcomings. We conclude by arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. Theoretically, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and "phase-2" restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.